It takes less than 6 years for the 25 to 44 yr old cohort to lose Irish majority status – at current rates. 8yrs for the 15-24 yr old group. Model is not dynamic yet. Dynamic will impact the 15-24 group harder due to its small size

Distributing PPSNs (legal migration) into Age Cohorts. 2023 Data. Assumption: Non Ethnic Irish 22% of population. Data source for components of population chance is CSO

1/2 Estimates of how long a cohort has until an Irish majority is lost. Results from a Compilation of other pieces of work (previously posted). This combines IPAS (at 30k) & Non Irish PPSNs at current rates.

2/2 PPSN are larger and a 0.65 multiplier is used as between 60/70% are inactive a year later. CSO refer to this in the components of population report 2023. To use full 100% of PPSNs would dramatically reduce the times but likely be inaccurate. Results:

Using Monthly PPSN Registration Data between 2006 and 2024, the data can be aggregated into age groups to enable to ability to distribute future expected legal migration. Data: https://gov.ie/en/collection/a78027-statistics-on-personal-public-service-pps-numbers-issued/

Methodology – Using aggregated historic data IPAS and PPSN data the age distribution was calculated and aligned to Age cohorts found in the CSO census 2022. IPAS rates are set at 30k per annum. PPSN are based on latest CSO data.

For every 100 people added to the Irish population in 2023……93 came in from abroad 7 from Irish growth. Link to 2023 numbers: https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-mip/measuringirelandsprogress2022/… Link to Census 2022 numbers: https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cpsr/censusofpopulation2022-summaryresults/

Latest data, 2023: 74% of births were to mothers with Irish nationality. Note – not ethnicity, a passport = Irish nationality. This puts “Irish” natural growth at 8,500. This also puts IPAS at 30k p.a. into perspective

Another key post from

@juice8882 This shows population change over time. Total population. (My calculations above are centered on the parent/household formation cohorts). The overall population takes longer to change but it becomes set in stone in advance.